Kinh tế Việt Nam khép lại năm 2024 với mức tăng trưởng ấn tượng 7,09%, vượt chỉ tiêu 6,5-7% do Quốc hội đề ra. Kết quả này đến từ sự đóng góp tích cực của các khu vực kinh tế trọng điểm, với khu vực dịch vụ dẫn đầu đóng góp 49,46%, tiếp theo là công nghiệp và xây dựng với 45,17%, và nông lâm nghiệp, thủy sản với 5,37%. Đây là tín hiệu khả quan cho thấy nền kinh tế đang dần phục hồi và phát triển bền vững hơn.

Exports Continue to Drive Growth

Export performance in 2024 demonstrated strong recovery and significantly contributed to overall economic growth. The year recorded record-breaking export turnover of USD 405.53 billion, a 14.3% increase compared to 2023. The FDI sector maintained its dominant role, contributing 71.8% of total export turnover, equivalent to USD 290.8 billion including crude oil. The trade balance showed a surplus of USD 24.77 billion, with the FDI sector contributing USD 47.5 billion in surplus.

Domestic Businesses Still Face Challenges

Despite positive overall export performance, the domestic economic sector continues to face numerous difficulties. This sector recorded a trade deficit of USD 25.4 billion, indicating significant dependence on imports. However, a bright spot emerged in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector with a surplus of USD 17.9 billion, affirming its crucial role in the national export structure.

High Level of Economic Openness

With total import-export turnover reaching USD 786.29 billion, Vietnam's economic openness ratio stands at 165% of GDP. While this figure reflects Vietnam's deep integration into the global economy, it also reveals considerable dependence on international trade - a factor requiring careful consideration in long-term development strategy.

Investment and Consumption - Internal Growth Drivers Need Strengthening

2024 witnessed a shift in growth drivers as net exports only contributed 0.66% to economic growth. This highlights the urgent need to strengthen internal growth drivers, particularly domestic investment and consumption.

Public Investment Disbursement Needs Acceleration

Total social investment capital in 2024 reached an estimated VND 3,692,100 billion, up 7.5% from the previous year, demonstrating noteworthy efforts in promoting development investment. However, public investment disbursement remained slow, reaching only 54.8% of the plan by November 2024. This poses a significant challenge in improving disbursement efficiency and optimizing resources for economic development.

Business Situation Shows Signs of Recovery

A notable bright spot is the recovery in the business sector, with over 233,400 newly registered and reopened businesses, increasing 7.1% compared to 2023. Although 197,900 businesses withdrew from the market, the positive net business growth indicates a gradually improving business environment.

The Vietnamese economy experienced notable improvements in 2024.

Prospects and Challenges for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Vietnam has set GDP growth targets of 6.5-7% with aspirations to reach 7-7.5%, while the Government expects 8%. These are ambitious targets given ongoing global economic uncertainties.

To achieve growth targets, accelerating institutional reforms and developing new economic models such as digital economy, green economy, and circular economy are crucial. Experts emphasize that these reforms must be implemented comprehensively and synchronously to avoid creating new bottlenecks while solving existing ones.

Sustainable Development Solutions

In the new context, Vietnam needs to focus on breakthrough and sustainable solutions. Particularly, opportunities from the trend of semiconductor and high-tech investment shifting to Asia present significant prospects. To capitalize on these opportunities, preparation in infrastructure, human resources, and investment environment needs to be enhanced and implemented more decisively in the coming period.

Policymakers need to continue closely monitoring macroeconomic developments, making timely policy adjustments to support sustainable economic growth while ensuring macroeconomic stability and social welfare.

> See more: 30 years of Vietnamese real estate: Overcoming challenges, pursuing stability

Cre: Trung tam WTO